Reform UK ‘Stamping Their Tanks’ Across the Political Lawn: What Local Elections Say About Britain’s Shifting Voter Base
In the wake of surprising local election results, Savanta’s Political Research Director Chris Hopkins discusses Reform UK's growing appeal, the disillusionment driving younger and traditional non-voters to the polls, and whether Britain is finally witnessing the decline of two-party politics.
Reform UK has emerged from the recent local elections as a political force that can no longer be dismissed. “They’re absolutely stamping their tanks on both the Conservative lawn and Labour’s lawn,” said Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta.
In an interview reflecting on the early results, Hopkins suggested the party’s success indicates a deeper, long-term shift in voter behaviour — one that could threaten the foundations of the UK’s long lasting two-party system.
While some had anticipated a strong showing from Reform, Hopkins noted that many pollsters had been cautious about overestimating the party’s support, especially given its reliance on traditional non-voters.
But this time, turnout tells a different story. “It does seem as though they are turning out in their droves,” he said, comparing the momentum to the Brexit referendum and crediting Reform’s appeal to disillusioned voters.
Hopkins also sees signs that younger people — particularly young men may be warming to Reform’s anti-establishment message. Despite lower turnout among this group, Hopkins suggested that frustration with mainstream parties may be creating fertile ground for alternative parties such as Reform.
“I think generally speaking, young voters have always felt a little bit left behind in British politics. They have not been prioritised, perhaps by at least the Conservative Party, you know, historically. ”
As for Labour, Hopkins didn’t mince words: “They didn’t have a very long honeymoon, and it’s never really recovered.” With Keir Starmer’s approval ratings in sharp decline, Labour’s early unpopularity poses a strategic dilemma — whether its front-loaded approach to tough policy decisions will pay off before the next general election remains uncertain.
HeadlineReform UK ‘Stamping Their Tanks’ Across the Political Lawn: What Local Elections Say About Britain’s Shifting Voter Base
Short HeadlineReform Surge Signals Shift in UK Politics
StandfirstIn the wake of surprising local election results, Savanta’s Political Research Director Chris Hopkins discusses Reform UK's growing appeal, the disillusionment driving younger and traditional non-voters to the polls, and whether Britain is finally witnessing the decline of two-party politics.
Reform UK has emerged from the recent local elections as a political force that can no longer be dismissed. “They’re absolutely stamping their tanks on both the Conservative lawn and Labour’s lawn,” said Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta.
In an interview reflecting on the early results, Hopkins suggested the party’s success indicates a deeper, long-term shift in voter behaviour — one that could threaten the foundations of the UK’s long lasting two-party system.
While some had anticipated a strong showing from Reform, Hopkins noted that many pollsters had been cautious about overestimating the party’s support, especially given its reliance on traditional non-voters.
But this time, turnout tells a different story. “It does seem as though they are turning out in their droves,” he said, comparing the momentum to the Brexit referendum and crediting Reform’s appeal to disillusioned voters.
Hopkins also sees signs that younger people — particularly young men may be warming to Reform’s anti-establishment message. Despite lower turnout among this group, Hopkins suggested that frustration with mainstream parties may be creating fertile ground for alternative parties such as Reform.
“I think generally speaking, young voters have always felt a little bit left behind in British politics. They have not been prioritised, perhaps by at least the Conservative Party, you know, historically. ”
As for Labour, Hopkins didn’t mince words: “They didn’t have a very long honeymoon, and it’s never really recovered.” With Keir Starmer’s approval ratings in sharp decline, Labour’s early unpopularity poses a strategic dilemma — whether its front-loaded approach to tough policy decisions will pay off before the next general election remains uncertain.
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