Could business rates hikes call time on London's pubs?
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A new website, ‘Is My Pub F****d‘, uses official data to identify the most at-risk pubs in the country, many of which are in London. Its creator, Ben Guerin, wanted to spotlight the pubs that need our support the most.
Matthew Hayhurst spoke to him for City News.
Matthew Hayhurst:
Hi Ben, big fan of the website. So pubs on the site are categorised from ‘Somehow Fine’ to ‘Absolutely F***d’, could you explain what those mean in real terms?
Ben Guerin:
The categories are based on the percentage increase in rateable value. That’s the figure the government uses to calculate how much business rates a pub owes.
“Somehow Fine” means the pub’s rateable value has stayed flat or even dropped. “Absolutely F***d” means increases of 200%+, sometimes 500% or more.
Rateable value isn’t the final tax bill. There are reliefs and multipliers that affect what pubs actually pay. But a massive jump in rateable value is a strong signal that a pub’s costs are about to go up significantly. For pubs already operating on tight margins, that can be the difference between surviving and closing.
A 300% increase in the number the government uses to calculate your tax bill is never good news.
MH:
Have there been many pubs getting in contact with you about the data? If so, what have they said?
BG:
I’ve had a few messages. Mostly from people saying thanks for building the website or flagging pubs that were missing from the database (which I’ve now fixed. I added nearly 4,000 pubs that were being classified as “small hotels” by the VOA).
I haven’t had direct contact from London pub landlords specifically, but I’ve seen a lot of people on social media tagging their locals and sharing the data. The response has been more from punters than publicans. People wanting to know which pub near them needs their support.
How much longer can the local survive?
MH:
What can be done to save these pubs on the brink of extinction?
BG:
In the short term: go to the pub. Genuinely. The best thing anyone can do is show up, buy a pint, maybe have some food. Pubs are a use-it-or-lose-it thing.
Policy-wise, the government’s signalled some kind of relief on business rates, but nothing’s confirmed. The broader issue is that pubs face pressure from multiple directions.
Rates, National Insurance, wages, energy costs, duty on alcohol. Any one of those is manageable. All of them together are brutal.
I’m not a policy expert, so I’ll leave the specifics to people who know more than me. But the principle seems obvious: if you want pubs to exist, the economics need to work. Right now, for a lot of pubs, they don’t.
The Park Tavern, Finsbury Park
MH:
Your map focuses on the potential business rates rise, but what do you think are other major factors threatening these locals?
BG:
Rates are just one piece. These are the others: National Insurance went up in April. That’s a direct hit on staffing costs. Minimum wage increases (which are good for workers) also add pressure. Energy costs have come down from the peak but are still higher than pre-2022. Duty on spirits and beer keeps going up. And then there’s the broader shift in how people socialise. More people staying home, drinking less, going out less often.
The pubs that are thriving tend to be the ones that have become destinations. Great food, events, something that makes them worth the trip. The ones struggling are often the everyday locals that used to survive on regulars popping in after work. That habit has changed.
MH:
Do you think the negative effect of Dry January on pubs outweighs the positive personal health benefits?
BG:
I’m not going to tell anyone not to do Dry January. If it works for you, great. People should make their own choices about drinking. But I do think pubs get unfairly lumped in with “drinking = bad.”
A pub isn’t just a place to drink. It’s somewhere to meet people, have conversations, be part of a community. You can go to a pub and have a lime and soda. The social function matters regardless of what’s in your glass.
A hands-on way of supporting your local.
MH:
Should we be talking more about the potential mental health benefits of going to the pub?
BG:
The mental health angle is real. Loneliness is a genuine public health issue. Pubs are one of the few remaining “third places”. Somewhere that isn’t home or work where people can actually talk to each other. Losing them has a cost that doesn’t show up on a balance sheet.
So yeah. Do Dry January if you want. But do it at the pub.
MH:
Thanks Ben. Finally, what are some of your favourite pubs in London that our readers need to visit?
BG:
I live in Battersea so love the St John’s Tavern, Duke of Cambridge, Alma in Wandsworth and the Northcote Saviour. I’m spoiled for choice!
If this interview has left you thirsting for a pint, I’ve used Ben’s data to create an interactive walking route of all the Top 100 ‘f****d’ London pubs on Ben’s website. It’s 271km long. Good luck… and please drink responsibly.
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Headline“Do Dry January if you want. But do it at the pub.”
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StandfirstAn interview with Ben Guerin, creator of ‘ismypubf***d.com’.
A new website, ‘Is My Pub F****d‘, uses official data to identify the most at-risk pubs in the country, many of which are in London. Its creator, Ben Guerin, wanted to spotlight the pubs that need our support the most.
Matthew Hayhurst spoke to him for City News.
Matthew Hayhurst:
Hi Ben, big fan of the website. So pubs on the site are categorised from ‘Somehow Fine’ to ‘Absolutely F***d’, could you explain what those mean in real terms?
Ben Guerin:
The categories are based on the percentage increase in rateable value. That’s the figure the government uses to calculate how much business rates a pub owes.
“Somehow Fine” means the pub’s rateable value has stayed flat or even dropped. “Absolutely F***d” means increases of 200%+, sometimes 500% or more.
Rateable value isn’t the final tax bill. There are reliefs and multipliers that affect what pubs actually pay. But a massive jump in rateable value is a strong signal that a pub’s costs are about to go up significantly. For pubs already operating on tight margins, that can be the difference between surviving and closing.
A 300% increase in the number the government uses to calculate your tax bill is never good news.
MH:
Have there been many pubs getting in contact with you about the data? If so, what have they said?
BG:
I’ve had a few messages. Mostly from people saying thanks for building the website or flagging pubs that were missing from the database (which I’ve now fixed. I added nearly 4,000 pubs that were being classified as “small hotels” by the VOA).
I haven’t had direct contact from London pub landlords specifically, but I’ve seen a lot of people on social media tagging their locals and sharing the data. The response has been more from punters than publicans. People wanting to know which pub near them needs their support.
How much longer can the local survive?
MH:
What can be done to save these pubs on the brink of extinction?
BG:
In the short term: go to the pub. Genuinely. The best thing anyone can do is show up, buy a pint, maybe have some food. Pubs are a use-it-or-lose-it thing.
Policy-wise, the government’s signalled some kind of relief on business rates, but nothing’s confirmed. The broader issue is that pubs face pressure from multiple directions.
Rates, National Insurance, wages, energy costs, duty on alcohol. Any one of those is manageable. All of them together are brutal.
I’m not a policy expert, so I’ll leave the specifics to people who know more than me. But the principle seems obvious: if you want pubs to exist, the economics need to work. Right now, for a lot of pubs, they don’t.
The Park Tavern, Finsbury Park
MH:
Your map focuses on the potential business rates rise, but what do you think are other major factors threatening these locals?
BG:
Rates are just one piece. These are the others: National Insurance went up in April. That’s a direct hit on staffing costs. Minimum wage increases (which are good for workers) also add pressure. Energy costs have come down from the peak but are still higher than pre-2022. Duty on spirits and beer keeps going up. And then there’s the broader shift in how people socialise. More people staying home, drinking less, going out less often.
The pubs that are thriving tend to be the ones that have become destinations. Great food, events, something that makes them worth the trip. The ones struggling are often the everyday locals that used to survive on regulars popping in after work. That habit has changed.
MH:
Do you think the negative effect of Dry January on pubs outweighs the positive personal health benefits?
BG:
I’m not going to tell anyone not to do Dry January. If it works for you, great. People should make their own choices about drinking. But I do think pubs get unfairly lumped in with “drinking = bad.”
A pub isn’t just a place to drink. It’s somewhere to meet people, have conversations, be part of a community. You can go to a pub and have a lime and soda. The social function matters regardless of what’s in your glass.
A hands-on way of supporting your local.
MH:
Should we be talking more about the potential mental health benefits of going to the pub?
BG:
The mental health angle is real. Loneliness is a genuine public health issue. Pubs are one of the few remaining “third places”. Somewhere that isn’t home or work where people can actually talk to each other. Losing them has a cost that doesn’t show up on a balance sheet.
So yeah. Do Dry January if you want. But do it at the pub.
MH:
Thanks Ben. Finally, what are some of your favourite pubs in London that our readers need to visit?
BG:
I live in Battersea so love the St John’s Tavern, Duke of Cambridge, Alma in Wandsworth and the Northcote Saviour. I’m spoiled for choice!
If this interview has left you thirsting for a pint, I’ve used Ben’s data to create an interactive walking route of all the Top 100 ‘f****d’ London pubs on Ben’s website. It’s 271km long. Good luck… and please drink responsibly.
