Camden Council has launched a consultation on closing four schools across the borough, three primary schools and a secondary school. It comes as schools across London are closing because there are not enough children to take up places.

On the consultation website, Camden Council says that the falling birth rate and people moving out of London mean there are fewer children to take up places.

Schools receive funding on a per pupil basis, so a drop in pupil numbers means less funding. At the same time, school budgets are coming under pressure from inflation and rising utility costs.

London Councils, the body that represents all 32 boroughs and the City of London, estimates that London schools will lose £45m over the next four years due to falling school rolls.

Schools across the city affected

Pupil numbers are not just falling in Camden. Richmond Council recently announced a consultation on the closure of one primary school and the merger of two others.

Richmond Council says that Kew Riverside Primary School, which they are proposing to close at the end of the current academic year, was built for 210 pupils, but currently only has 87.

London Councils says that the majority of London boroughs are expecting a fall in pupil numbers in the coming years. They say that in the past five years, 90 schools across the city have closed or merged.

Councillor Una O’Halloran, London Councils’ Executive Member for Children and Education, said:

“School closures can be a hugely disruptive experience for children, their families and affected school staff. Boroughs always exhaust all possible options before considering closures, but the ongoing decline in pupil numbers across London means we’re increasingly facing tough decision about the future of our schools.”

Falling birth rates and housing affordability

So what is the cause? Part of the story is about falling birth rates. London’s birth rate has been in decline since 2012, and the London Assembly’s Economy, Culture and Skills committee say that the birth rate in Inner London is falling faster than in the rest of the country.

Births in England and Wales have been falling since 2012. Source: Births in England and Wales from the Office for National Statistics

It is also about people moving out of inner London. London Councils says that “there is significant net out-migration, especially from inner London, as families seek more affordable housing elsewhere.”

This is reflected in the differing rates of decline between inner and outer London. London Councils is forecasting a 6.2% drop in reception places in inner London boroughs over the next four years. But in outer London, the decline is smaller, at 1%. In fact, three outer London boroughs are expecting increased rolls in the coming years.

It is not just affecting London. According to a House of Lords committee, pupil rolls in primary schools are set to fall by 300,000 pupils between 2025 and 2030.